Curtains at Number Ten: predicting the general election

Malaysia’s 2008 General Election

Leading theories of transitions from single-party dominant systems begin with economic crisis, the party’s loss of patronage resources, and elite-level defections. The multiparty elections that are then held exert no independent effect, but instead register neutrally the party’s decline and the democratization of politics. This paper, however, shifts attention from the dominant party to citizen...

The 2005 General Election in Great Britain

Predicting Ten Thousand Bits from Ten Thousand Inputs

Submachine code genetic programming and multiple classification GP runs are used to winow the predictive inputs and then evolve an entry to the WCCI-2007 binary time series prediction task held at the Congress on Evolutionary Computation (CEC-2006) held in Vancouver.

Predicting the 2011 Dutch Senate Election Results with Twitter

To what extend can one use Twitter in opinion polls for political elections? Merely counting Twitter messages mentioning political party names is no guarantee for obtaining good election predictions. By improving the quality of the document collection and by performing sentiment analysis, predictions based on entity counts in tweets can be considerably improved, and become nearly as good as tra...

UK General Election 2017: a Twitter Analysis

This work is produced by researchers at the Neuropolitics Research Lab, School of Social and Political Science and the School of Informatics at the University of Edinburgh. In this report we provide an analysis of the social media posts on the British general election 2017 over the month running up to the vote. We find that pro-Labour sentiment dominates the Twitter conversation around GE2017 a...